March 2, 2023Fullscreen Mode
Author Archives: Jody Peters
Translation Needs for the EFI Community
February 2, 2023
By the Translation Working Group
Translational ecology aims to increase the usability of knowledge and products beyond scientific communities by integrating socio-environmental knowledge and stakeholders or end users as partners in the process and projects. For the past few months, the Translation and Actionable Science Working Group has been working to gauge the translational needs of the EFI community and to identify where modelers and physical scientists see gaps in connecting to stakeholders and end users to conduct translational research. The goal of this post is to share what the working group has identified as priorities for translational needs and share where there are connections to what other working groups and organizations are doing.
Michael Gerst (University of Maryland) led interviews in October-November 2022 with nine individuals across EFI that represent a range of early to late career stages, institutional type (academic, NGO, U.S. government agency), and gender to learn about interviewees’ experiences with forecasting projects that required stakeholder interaction, what went well, what didn’t, and what would have been useful to improve stakeholder engagement. The EFI Translation Working Group is using the results from these interviews to prioritize and develop activities that can help to fill those gaps.
The following seven topics were identified from the interviews and Working Group discussions that could be developed into self-contained seminars, manuals, or guidance documents (for short-term activities) or hosting larger workshops or proposal writing opportunities (for longer-term activities). Cases where topics overlap with other EFI working group discussions and activities are also highlighted.
- How can EFI serve as an advocate for ecological forecasting to stakeholder groups, especially the public sector?
In some cases, the individuals interviewed found that the stakeholders they work with were not interested as much in the forecasts provided as they were in the real-time data that was provided during the data collection and forecast process. These real-time data allowed the stakeholders to use their expert knowledge to make informed decisions that may or may not have been related to the forecasts that the teams provided. Within academia, there has been quite a bit of work to raise the profile of ecological forecasting, but there is now the opportunity to bring this awareness outside academia to private and government sectors to both promote the benefits of ecological forecasts in settings outside academia and listen to the needs of stakeholders.
- What’s the appropriate level of stakeholder engagement? Is co-production always the right answer?
Co-production is increasingly seen as a method for improving the fit between science and stakeholder needs. However, it can be time-consuming and expensive, necessitating assessment of whether its potential benefits are a good match for a project. While understanding of the contexts in which co-production can be fruitful has improved, there is still a gap in distilling guidelines for scientists on when it is appropriate, and if not, what other options exist.
- How to help colleagues find collaborators across disciplines (i.e., matchmaking) as well as providing guidance on what makes a fruitful multi-disciplinary collaboration?
This topic, as well the previous point about the appropriate level of stakeholder engagement connects with conversations and a blog post the EFI Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) working group is having and developing that highlights the need to bring in collaborators at the beginning of a project to learn what is of most interest to them. The DEI group has focused on underrepresented individuals in terms of race/gender, but this can also be applicable to underrepresented disciplines in ecological forecasting like social science.
This topic also connects with previous discussions in the former Partners and Knowledge Translation working group (which merged with the former Social Science group to become the current Translation working group). Previous discussions have revolved around how to keep a database of individuals and groups that support matchmaking connections. The group has also discussed the need for forums or meetings to allow groups to pitch ideas and socialize early ideas that can then be followed up to develop proposals to fund those ideas. Clearly, this is something that resonates both within the working groups and across the broader EFI community.
- How to initiate, foster, and maintain stakeholder relationships?
In 2021 and early 2022 the Partners and Knowledge Transfer and Social Science working groups hosted a number of seminars on science communication and co-production. In particular, the May 4, 2021 seminar on co-production provides some initial resources that could be built out further for this topic. The discussions and the upcoming blog post the EFI DEI working group is developing that highlight ways to connect to underrepresented groups will also provide useful resources related to fostering relationships.
- How to understand stakeholder decision-making processes?
In the interviews, a few anecdotes were shared that ultimately can be summarized as: we thought we knew how stakeholders make decisions (with forecasts!) but experience eventually proved otherwise. In addition to learning the process of stakeholder engagement, interviewees thought there would be utility in helping modelers understand the universe of ways stakeholders might make decisions and where forecasts fit in (or don’t!).
- How to set up extended project planning to ensure continued operationalization?
It is important to have a plan in place for how ecological forecasts will be operationalized after the initial set of funding expires. Stakeholders are frustrated if they start to use a forecast and then it is no longer available when the funding is over. NASA provides one example of how to avoid this issue. In NASA’s Ecological Conservation Applications, solicitations (e.g., A.40 Earth Science Applications: Ecological Conservation) often require proposal teams to include partners/end users who will also be responsible for maintaining the ecological forecasting products (e.g, web apps) beyond the NASA funding period.
- How to make data, models, and systems that are documented and reusable (FAIR data, models)?This is a topic that is of interest across multiple working groups in the EFI community. The Forecasting Standards working group has recently submitted a manuscript for publication titled “A Community Convention for Ecological Forecasting: Output Files and Metadata.” The preprint is available here: https://ecoevorxiv.org/9dgtq/. The manuscript focuses on suggestions for documenting ecological forecasts. The Cyberinfrastructure and Methods working group has also been thinking about the issue where groups creating ecological forecasts continue to develop one-off or boutique workflows. That working group is writing a workshop proposal to bring the together people from government agencies, industry, NGOs, and academia together to develop a way to share forecasts and workflows so people don’t need to reinvent a forecast workflow. Instead, new forecasts can be created that borrow strength from resources already developed for similar models or workflows and instead be able to focus on the details and nuances of applying a forecast in their own study system or domain. This also resonates with what the EFI NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge is working on with the cyberinfrastructure that is set up for accessing target and meteorological data and accepting, scoring, and visualizing forecasts across multiple NEON Data streams.
EFI Newsletter Issue 29
January 30, 2023Fullscreen Mode
EFI Newsletter Issue 28
December 5, 2022Fullscreen Mode
EFI at AGU 2022
Date: December 4, 2012
Below is the list of poster and oral presentations for EFI’s hosted session at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2022 Conference in Chicago, as well as other ecological forecasting-related talks that may be of interest to the community. All times are listed in US Central Time.
Thursday EFI Social – Anyone who is available to meet up on December 15, Thursday evening, we’ll have a group getting together at Kroll’s South Loop starting around 6:30 – 8:30pm. It’s an 18-minute walk from the Convention Center. Find directions here.
Friday Poster and Oral Sessions – EFI’s oral and poster sessions on “Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System” will be held on Friday, December 16, 2012. The in-person Poster Session is from 9am-12:30pm in Poster Hall A (South, Level 3). The Online Poster Session is from 1:45-2:45pm. The Oral session is from 4:45-6:15pm in S501bcd (South, Level 5). We’re excited to have a great set of speakers that really span the full gradient from terrestrial to freshwater to marine. Come check out the following talks!
Friday EFI In-Person Poster Session (9:00-12:30, Poster Hall A)
- David Fastovich (Syracuse University) – B52E-0873 Detecting legacies of millennial scale climate oscillations on modern biodiversity: lessons from a proxy-model comparison
- Woojin Jeon (Jeonbuk University) – B52E-0874 ENSO prediction modulated by interactive phytoplankton feedback
- Adrian V Rocha (University of Notre Dame) – B52E-0875 Identifying challenges to increase collaboration between field ecologists and modelers
- Qianyu Li (Brookhaven National Laboratory) – B52E-0876 Soil carbon assimilation through PEcAn State Data Assimilation framework
- Michael Dietze (Boston University) – B25E-0877 Partitioning model-data uncertainties in a terrestrial carbon cycle reanalysis across NEON sites.
- Joshua Bowers (University of Wisconsin Oshkosh) – B52E-0878 Validation of the PEcAn Terrestrial Ecosystem Forecast Using NASA SMAP Satellite Soil Moisture Observations
- Yingjie Hu (University of Buffalo) – B52E-0879 Forecasting vegetation dynamics in an open ecosystem by integrating deep learning and environmental variables
- Buyun Jeong (Seoul National University) – B52E-0880 Incorporation of Fe oxides as an Additional Cd Partitioning Phase in the Presence of Humic Acid for Development of Sediment Toxicity Prediction Model in Oxic Conditions
Friday EFI Online Poster Session (1:45-2:45pm, Online)
- Heng Huang (Texas A&M University) – B54C-01 Projecting transitions from positive to negative net ecosystem productivity merging earth system models with global observation databases
Friday EFI Oral Session (4:45-6:15pm, S501bcd – South, Level 5)
- 4:45 Nicole Lovenduski (University of Colorado) – Near-term predictions of multiple marine stressors
- 4:55 Mark Rowe (NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) – Approaches to Development and Assessment of Ecological Forecasts, With Recent Examples From Lake Erie (Invited)
- 5:05 Katherine Hudson Gallagher (Stony Brook University) – Pygoscelis Penguin Colony Locations and Diet Compositions along the West Antarctic Peninsula could be Driven by High Retention and Accumulation of Simulated Krill
- 5:15 Cory Merow (University of Connecticut) – BioFI – The Biodiversity Forecasting Initiative to Understand Population, Community, and Ecosystem Function Under Climate Change
- 5:25 Hannah O’Grady (Mount Holyoke College) – Using Space-for-Time to Understand the Empirical Dynamics of Tropical Rainforests
- 5:35 Chris Wilson (University of Florida) – Forecasting pasture productivity and ecosystem services at scale: insights and challenges combining cross-scale datasets with a canopy process model using a hierarchical Bayesian approach
- 5:45 Cancelled
- 5:55 Kelly Heilman (University of Arizona) – Ecological forecasting of ponderosa pine forest biomass in the Interior West US
- 18:05 – Discussion
Other Forecasting Presentations –
If you are presenting an ecological forecasting-related talk or poster that you don’t see on the list, reach out so we can get it added!
- Mon 9:00-9:10: Katherine Skalak, E270 – Integrated Water Prediction at Regional and National Scales
- Mon 11:10-11:20: Mengqiu Wang, S402a – Improving Sargassum Transport Modeling in the Tropical Atlantic with Continuous Satellite Observations (Invited)
- Mon 11:40-11:50: Anastasia Tarasenko, S402a – Sargassum detection and forecast operational system at Meteo-France
- Mon 11:50-12:00: Robert Marsh, S402a – Monitoring, Understanding and Forecasting Sargassum across the Tropical Atlantic: the SARTRAC Experience
- Mon 12:00-12:10: Donald Johnson, S402a – Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Sargassum Influx Events in the Tropical Atlantic
- Mon 12:10-12:20: Ludivine Goujon, S402a – Study of the littoral dynamics of sargassum in Martinique and the risks of stranding
- Mon 2:45-2:55: Michael Dietze, B15C-01 – Integrating networked observations and remote sensing into a CONUS-scale carbon cycle reanalysis and forecasting system (Invited)
- Mon 2:45-6:15: Saiful Haque Rahat, Poster Hall-A – Machine Learning for River Water Quality Prediction and Detecting Uncertainties with Changing Climate
- Tues 9:10-9:20: Ethan Romero-Severson, E258 – The Climate Integrated Model of Mosquito-Borne Infectious Disease: a large-scale, mechanistic approach to science and global forecasting under climate change
- Tues 2:45-6:15: Shashika Himandi, Poster Hall-A, South Level 3 – Combining Air Borne LiDAR and Forest Inventory Analysis Data (FIA) to Develop a Forest Carbon Model Using Machine Learning Techniques
- Wed 2:45-6:15: Poster Hall-A, South Level 3 – Advances in Data Assimilation, Predictability, and Uncertainty Quantification IV Poster [Poster Session]
- Wed 5:00-5:10: Giangiacomo Navarra, S105d – Using Deep Learning to Forecast Marine Fishery indicators in the North Pacific
- Thurs 9-12:30: Aidan Schneider, Poster Hall-A, South Level 3 – Forecasting West Nile Virus Infections: A Machine-Learning Approach to Epidemiological Monitoring
- Fri 9:00-12:30: Jackie Dean, Poster Hall-A, South Level 3 – Forecasting Net Forest Biomass Changes for Land Management in Interior Alaska
EFI Newsletter Issue 27
November 2, 2022Fullscreen Mode
Congratulations to Kelly Heilman on the 2022 ESA Ecological Forecasting Award!
The ESA Statistical Ecology section is proud to present the 2022 Ecological Forecasting Outstanding Publication Award to Kelly Heilman and collaborators for their 2022 Global Change Biology Paper:
“Ecological forecasting of tree growth: Regional fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data to quantify drivers and characterize uncertainty”
The award committee felt that the paper illustrates the strength of combining multiple data constraints across regional scales to improve predictions of forest growth for a climatically-vulnerable ecoregion, the American Southwest, parsing out the complex interactions among climate, stand, and individual-scale effects. Furthermore, the paper provides a detailed accounting of how different uncertainties impact growth projections across a range of time scales and climate projections, finding that tree growth and tree size were sensitive to very different uncertainties (year-to-year growth was dominated by driver uncertainty and process error, while tree size was more sensitive to initial conditions and plot random effects).
Individuals wishing to nominate papers published in the past 3 years for the 2023 award are encouraged to do so by the March 1, 2023 deadline. Additional information can be found at https://www.esa.org/stats/awards/ecological-forecasting-outstanding-publication-award/
Full List of Award Winners & Citations
2022 – Kelly Heilman (University of Arizona)
Heilman, K. A., Dietze, M. C., Arizpe, A. A., Aragon, J., Gray, A., Shaw, J. D., Finley, A. O., Klesse, S., DeRose, R. J., & Evans, M. E. K. (2022). Ecological forecasting of tree growth: Regional fusion of tree-ring and forest inventory data to quantify drivers and characterize uncertainty. Global Change Biology 28(7):2442-2460 doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16038
2021 – Sarah Saunders (National Audubon Society)
Saunders, S.P., F.J. Cuthbert, and E.F. Zipkin. “Evaluating Population Viability and Efficacy of Conservation Management Using Integrated Population Models.” Journal of Applied Ecology 55, no. 3 (2018): 1380–92. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13080.
2020 – Paige Howell (USGS)
Howell, P.E., B.R. Hossack, E. Muths, B.H. Sigafus, A. Chenevert‐Steffler, and R.B. Chandler. “A Statistical Forecasting Approach to Metapopulation Viability Analysis.” Ecological Applications 30, no. 2 (2020): e02038. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2038.
2019 – Maria Paniw (CREAF, Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre)
Paniw, M., N. Maag, G. Cozzi, T. Clutton-Brock, and A. Ozgul. “Life History Responses of Meerkats to Seasonal Changes in Extreme Environments.” Science 363, no. 6427 (February 8, 2019): 631–35. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau5905.
2018 – Quinn Thomas (Virginia Tech)
Thomas, R.Q., E.B. Brooks, A.L. Jersild, E.J. Ward, R.H. Wynne, T.J. Albaugh, H. Dinon-Aldridge, et al. “Leveraging 35 Years of Pinus Taeda Research in the Southeastern US to Constrain Forest Carbon Cycle Predictions: Regional Data Assimilation Using Ecosystem Experiments.” Biogeosciences 14, no. 14 (2017): 3525–47. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3525-2017.
EFI Newsletter Issue 26
September 26, 2022Fullscreen Mode
NEON Case Study Part 2 – The EFI-NEON Forecasting Challenge in the Classroom
September 8, 2022
See highlights about the NEON Forecasting Challenge in a two part series from the National Ecological Observatory Network blog.
This second post provides examples of how the NEON Forecasting Challenge has been used in undergraduate and graduate classes.
You can find the first post about building a forecasting community and individual experiences participating in the Challenge here:
EFI Newsletter Issue 25
August 3, 2022Fullscreen Mode