The Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) is organized around seven cross-cutting working groups that aim to develop a broad unification of environmental biology, from core cross-disciplinary theory and social decision-making through applications of quantitative tools and cyberinfrastructure, which will then be disseminated through education and diversity and knowledge transfer.
EFI also has an Ecological Forecasting Student Association that is open to any student interested in ecological forecasting.
Working Groups meet on a monthly basis and are open for anyone to join. If you would like to join, send a request to firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Theory – June 21, July 19, and August 16 at 4pm US Eastern
- Partners – June 17, July 22, and August 26 at 2pm US Eastern
- Cyberinfrastructure & Methods – June 25, July 16, and August 20 at 4pm US Eastern
- Forecasting Standards – June 22, July 20, and August 17 at 4pm US Eastern
- Social Science – June 16, July 14, and August 25 at 2pm US Eastern
- Education – June 16, July 14, and August 18 at noon US Eastern
- Diversity & Inclusion – June 17, July 15, August 19 at 3pm US Eastern
- Ecological Forecasting Students Association – July 15 at 2pm (2 hour workshop for “Using Ecological Forecasts to Guide Decision-Making” where participants will be guided through a Macrosystems EDDIE Module on ecological forecasting, uncertainty visualization, and decision support tools. Register here.), August 19 at 2pm US Eastern
Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use). Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological system works. These are the big-picture problems the EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.
Video overview of the Theory Group.
Accelerating the use of probabilistic ecological forecasts requires understanding both how they could be used to make decisions under uncertainty, and how forecasts are actually interpreted and used in practice. It requires understanding how best to communicate forecast uncertainty, as well as how to better learn from model failures. Formalizing expert judgment in key scientific decisions and inference processes are critical to increasing community transparency about decisions and accelerating the process of model learning, reducing bias, and increasing model skill. The Social Science (originally, Decision Science) working group aims to explore these issues from the prospectives of both forecast producers and consumers.
Video overview of the Social Science Group
The integration of data and models is at the core of ecological forecasting. There is much that can be learned about forecasting methods from other disciplines, from weather forecasters through to economic forecasters. But ecologists also face challenges that outside the mainstream of either of these extremes, such as a high degree of process heterogeneity across many scales and an abundance of semi-mechanistic models, where physical and chemical constraints play an important role but many functional relationships are empirically derived. This working group will advance the statistical methods and tools for forecasting and data assimilation by advancing statistical approaches and best practices for data assimilation, translating these into software tools usable by ecologists, and develop uncertainty estimates on common data.
Video overview of the Methods and Cyberinfrastructure Groups
Regularly rerunning forecastings using the newest data is a core aspect of iterative near-term forecasting. This sets a higher bar for repeatability and presents informatic and computational challenges that go beyond most ecological analyses, particularly for forecasts running closer to real-time. The goal of the cyberinfrastructure working group is to make it easier to implement, archive, and share automated iterative forecasts, so that any research group that can develop a forecasting model can deploy it as an automated system. Efforts of this working group include, but are not limited to, the development of standards and databases for transparent, open, and interoperable archiving and sharing or both forecasts and forecast workflows, and the development of shared community tools for data ingest/interoperability and for forecast workflow automation / continuous integration. We will make the components of our infrastructure available through open source software and open educational resources for using existing tools.
Video overview of the Cyberinfrastructure and Methods Groups
The Ecological Forecasting Initiative is developing proposed community standards to be used for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast adoption, distribution, validation, and synthesis. The initial draft standard focuses on output file formats and metadata, with additional notes on data and code repositories. The goal is also to provide suggestions for archiving code and containers. A link to the Standards and examples can be found in the EFIStandards GitHub repository. Note that the Standard is a work in progress. If you find issues as you are applying them, contact us at email@example.com.
Our focus is to build a diverse community of individuals who are 1) trained on the methods, theory and decision science to create iterative near-term forecasts, or 2) trained to use the forecast predictions in management and policy. The Education and Diversity & Inclusion are separate working groups, but work closely together with a focus on building an inclusive community of practice among ecological forecasting educators and developing open, collaborative, and extensible teaching materials at the undergraduate, graduate, and professional levels. We think training in ecological forecasting is important for all ecologists, not just those actively building forecasts. For example, the approaches used to design experiments and collect data can change nontrivially if we want to inform predictions.
Video overview of the Education Group.
The Ecological Forecasting Initiative recognizes that a diverse community brings different expertise and experience towards ecological forecasting; we see such diversity as a benefit, and necessary to the development of a diverse and inclusive community of interest and practice. Thus, we welcome all participants, and encourage patience and tolerance among all, holding curiosity and respect as the cornerstones of personal and professional growth. An iterative approach works not only in the process of ecological forecasting, but if we adopt a mindset to continually engage with people of different backgrounds, get input, revise our efforts, we will become a more diverse community.
Video overview of the DEI Group.
The production and use of ecological forecasts often relies on partnerships between many organizations. The Partners & Knowledge Transfer working group is focused on fostering collaborations and forecast co-production among academics, government agencies, industry, NGOs, and citizen scientists. We are also interested in promoting the dissemination of ecological forecasts to help society better understand, manage, and conserve ecosystems.
Video overview of the Partners & Knowledge Transfer Group
Graduate Students meet monthly to provide a community of support for students interested in ecological forecasting. The group provides a venue for graduate students to network with others. Activities include discussions of relevant papers, short presentations of student’s research, and developing collaborative group projects such as hackathons, software packages, educational resources, and publications. Any graduate student interested in ecological forecasting is welcome to join. Email firstname.lastname@example.org to be added to the meeting list.
Video overview of the Student Association Group