Forecasting Project Profiles

If you have an iterative ecological forecast project that you’d like added to this list, you can create a profile for the project using this form.

Researchers at Boston University and the Cary Institute are working to develop an iterative cycle between making forecasts, performing analyses, and updating predictions in light of new evidence.
Researchers at the University of Florida are forecasting leaf out, flowering, and onset of fall colors for dozens of plant species across the United States. Forecasts are updated weekly to incorporate the most recent data and forecasts for temperature.
The "Smart & Connected Water Systems" project is developing a smart water system that integrates novel high-frequency sensors, cyberinfrastructure, and ecosystem forecasting techniques to improve the management of drinking water supply lakes and reservoirs
Ecologists at the University of Florida are forecasting ecological systems from time series, specifically rodent abundances from The Portal project located in the Chihuahuan desert of southern Arizona. Iterative near-term forecasts of rodent abundances are developed then tested as new data is collected on an approximate monthly time-scale.
MAPPPD (Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics) is an open access decision support tool designed for managers, scientists and the general public. This integrates advanced modeling techniques to detect and count penguin colonies from remote sensing data. MAPPPD also calculates occupancy probabilities and presents graphical output which projects how penguin populations will change in the future. The MAPPPD team recently ran a forecasting data science competition; more details HERE.
The CA HAB Bulletin, developed by the Southern California Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS), provides monthly to bi-monthly context for the C-HARM model output relative to harmful algal bloom observations and available marine mammal stranding data. C-HARM creates daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of harmful algal bloom (Pseudo-nitzschia spp.) and phycotoxin (domoic acid) risk for coastal California (domain out to 1000 km)
The PalEON project improves long-term forecasts of terrestrial ecosystem response to changing climate, land-use, and natural disturbance by assimilating information from historical and paleoecological data into a suite of models.
EcoCast is a fisheries sustainability tool that helps fishers and managers evaluate how to allocate fishing effort to optimize the sustainable harvest of target fish while minimizing bycatch of protected or threatened animals.
The Atlantic Sturgeon Risk of Encounter forecast is developed for mature Atlantic Sturgeon using historic telemetry observations matched to date, bathymetry, and sea surface temperature and ocean color from NASA’s MODIS AQUA satellite.

A Scalable and Secure Cyberinfrastructure for the Repeatability of Ecological Research

Boston University's Abraham Matta and Mike Dietze are building a hybrid elastic edge-cloud infrastructure to support repeatable ecological research. The webpage is under construction and will be available soon.
The ecocaster provides ecosystem forecasts for ticks, jellyfish, moose-car crashes, etc., based on citizen reports.