Theory & Synthesis | Ecological Forecasting Initiative

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use). Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological system works. These are the big-picture problems the EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Resources

Peter Adler’s overview of the Theory Group’s activities presented at the August 2020 ESA Symposia 25: The Ecological Forecasting Initiative: Lessons Learned from a Grassroots Network to Advance Ecology

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on January 25, February 22, March 22, April 26, and May 24 at 12pm US Eastern. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)