Theory & Synthesis | Ecological Forecasting Initiative

Announcement! The Theory Working Group paper, “The Power of Forecasts to Advance Ecological Theory” came out Methods in Ecology and Evolution in August 2022.

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use). Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological systems work. These are the big-picture problems the EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Resources

Amanda Gallinat’s overview of the Theory Group’s activities for the EFI 2022 Conference held May 23-25, 2022.

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on January 23, February 27, March 20, April 17, and May 15 at 4pm US Eastern. A new schedule of calls will be developed for June to August 2023. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Shubhi Sharma (Yale University)
Former co-chairs: Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Peter Adler (Utah State University)