Theory & Synthesis

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use).  Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological systems work. These are the big-picture problems the  EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Resources

Amanda Gallinat’s overview of the Theory Group’s activities for the EFI 2022 Conference held May 23-25, 2022.

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on June 7, July 12, and August 9 at 4pm US Eastern. A new schedule of calls will be developed for September to December 2022. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Shubhi Sharma (Yale University)
Former co-chairs: Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Peter Adler (Utah State University)

  1. May 3, 2022
  2. April 5, 2022
  3. March 8, 2022
  4. February 8, 2022
  5. January 11, 2022
  6. December 14, 2021
  7. November 16, 2021
  8. October 19, 2021
  9. September 28, 2021
  10. August 16, 2021
  11. July 19, 2021
  12. June 21, 2021
  13. May 24, 2021
  14. April 26, 2021
  15. March 22, 2021
  16. February 22, 2021
  17. January 25, 2021
  18. December 16, 2020
  19. November 18, 2020
  20. October 14, 2020
  21. September 16, 2020
  22. August 18, 2020
  23. July 21, 2020
  24. June 23, 2020
  25. May 26, 2020
  26. April 28, 2020
  27. April 2, 2020
  28. March 10, 2020
  29. February 20, 2020
  30. December 3, 2019
  31. November 12, 2019
  32. October 29, 2019
  33. October 1, 2019
  34. August 20, 2019
  35. July 14, 2019