Theory & Synthesis

Announcement! The Theory Working Group paper, “The Power of Forecasts to Advance Ecological Theory” came out Methods in Ecology and Evolution in August 2022.

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use).  Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological systems work. These are the big-picture problems the  EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Resources

Amanda Gallinat’s overview of the Theory Group’s activities for the EFI 2022 Conference held May 23-25, 2022.

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on Theory – September 14, October 5, November 2, and December 7 at 2pm US Eastern. A new schedule of calls will be developed for January to May 2023. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Shubhi Sharma (Yale University)
Former co-chairs: Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Peter Adler (Utah State University)

  1. November 2, 2022
  2. October 5, 2022
  3. September 14, 2022
  4. August 9, 2022
  5. July 12, 2022
  6. June 7, 2022
  7. May 3, 2022
  8. April 5, 2022
  9. March 8, 2022
  10. February 8, 2022
  11. January 11, 2022
  12. December 14, 2021
  13. November 16, 2021
  14. October 19, 2021
  15. September 28, 2021
  16. August 16, 2021
  17. July 19, 2021
  18. June 21, 2021
  19. May 24, 2021
  20. April 26, 2021
  21. March 22, 2021
  22. February 22, 2021
  23. January 25, 2021
  24. December 16, 2020
  25. November 18, 2020
  26. October 14, 2020
  27. September 16, 2020
  28. August 18, 2020
  29. July 21, 2020
  30. June 23, 2020
  31. May 26, 2020
  32. April 28, 2020
  33. April 2, 2020
  34. March 10, 2020
  35. February 20, 2020
  36. December 3, 2019
  37. November 12, 2019
  38. October 29, 2019
  39. October 1, 2019
  40. August 20, 2019
  41. July 14, 2019