Theory & Synthesis

Overview of the Theory Group

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use).  Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological systems work. These are the big-picture problems the  EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on Tuesdays at 2pm US ET on June 17 and August 5. A new schedule of calls will be created for September to December 2025. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com.

Theory Resources

February 27, 2025, Blog Post jointly written with Education & Theory working group members: Resources for Reviewing Code, https://ecoforecast.org/resources-for-reviewing-code/

The Theory Working Group paper, “The Power of Forecasts to Advance Ecological Theory” came out Methods in Ecology and Evolution in August 2022.

The Theory group is working on creating models for submitting forecasts to all the themes in the NEON Forecasting Challenge. During the April 2023 call, Caleb Robbins (Baylor University) shared how to use the tidymodels framework in R which is useful for creating Machine Learning models for forecasts.
Amanda Gallinat’s overview of the Theory Group’s activities for the EFI 2022 Conference held May 23-25, 2022.

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Shubhi Sharma (Yale University)
Former co-chairs: Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Peter Adler (Utah State University)

  1. May 13, 2025
  2. April 8, 2025
  3. March 11, 2025
  4. February 11, 2025
  5. January 14, 2025
  6. December 2, 2024
  7. November 4, 2024
  8. October 7, 2024
  9. September 9, 2024
  10. August 19, 2024
  11. July 8, 2024
  12. May 20, 2024
  13. April 22, 2024
  14. March 25, 2024
  15. February 26, 2024
  16. January 22, 2024
  17. December 18, 2023
  18. November 13, 2023
  19. October 16, 2023
  20. September 11, 2023
  21. August 14, 2023
  22. July 10, 2023
  23. June 12, 2023
  24. May 15, 2023
  25. April 17, 2023
  26. March 20, 2023
  27. February 27, 2023
  28. January 23, 2023
  29. December 7, 2022
  30. November 2, 2022
  31. October 5, 2022
  32. September 14, 2022
  33. August 9, 2022
  34. July 12, 2022
  35. June 7, 2022
  36. May 3, 2022
  37. April 5, 2022
  38. March 8, 2022
  39. February 8, 2022
  40. January 11, 2022
  41. December 14, 2021
  42. November 16, 2021
  43. October 19, 2021
  44. September 28, 2021
  45. August 16, 2021
  46. July 19, 2021
  47. June 21, 2021
  48. May 24, 2021
  49. April 26, 2021
  50. March 22, 2021
  51. February 22, 2021
  52. January 25, 2021
  53. December 16, 2020
  54. November 18, 2020
  55. October 14, 2020
  56. September 16, 2020
  57. August 18, 2020
  58. July 21, 2020
  59. June 23, 2020
  60. May 26, 2020
  61. April 28, 2020
  62. April 2, 2020
  63. March 10, 2020
  64. February 20, 2020
  65. December 3, 2019
  66. November 12, 2019
  67. October 29, 2019
  68. October 1, 2019
  69. August 20, 2019
  70. July 14, 2019