Theory & Synthesis

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use).  Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological system works. These are the big-picture problems the  EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Resources

Peter Adler’s overview of the Theory Group’s activities presented at the August 2020 ESA Symposia 25: The Ecological Forecasting Initiative: Lessons Learned from a Grassroots Network to Advance Ecology

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on June 21, July 19, and August 16 at 4pm US Eastern. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  1. May 24, 2021
  2. April 26, 2021
  3. March 22, 2021
  4. February 22, 2021
  5. January 25, 2021
  6. December 16, 2020
  7. November 18, 2020
  8. October 14, 2020
  9. September 16, 2020
  10. August 18, 2020
  11. July 21, 2020
  12. June 23, 2020
  13. May 26, 2020
  14. April 28, 2020
  15. April 2, 2020
  16. March 10, 2020
  17. February 20, 2020
  18. December 3, 2019
  19. November 12, 2019
  20. October 29, 2019
  21. October 1, 2019
  22. August 20, 2019
  23. July 14, 2019