Theory & Synthesis

Is nature predictable? Looking broadly across ecological subdisciplines, are there common patterns to what limits the predictability of different types of problems? Answering many of the deep, overarching questions in ecology requires us to develop new theory about predictability itself. It also requires synthesis across a small but rapidly growing catalog of ecological forecasts. Finally, forecasting itself is inherently synthetic, as making specific, quantitative predictions requires the fusion of our prior data and our current theories (as embedded in the models we use).  Prediction provides a means of unification by assessing our ability to extrapolate not just within individual problems but across them; it implies we understand something general about how ecological systems work. These are the big-picture problems the  EFI Theory & Synthesis working group aims to tackle.

Theory Resources

Abby Lewis’ overview of the Theory Group’s activities for the EFISA Early Career Meeting held June 14-15, 2021.

Theory Working Group Schedule of Calls:
The Theory Group will meet on September 28, October 19, November 16, December 14 at 4pm US Eastern. We are always open to people joining the calls, contact us at eco4cast.initiative@gmail.com

Notes from Working Group Calls
Co-chairs: Abby Lewis (Virginia Tech), Amanda Gallinat (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  1. November 16, 2021
  2. October 19, 2021
  3. September 28, 2021
  4. August 16, 2021
  5. July 19, 2021
  6. June 21, 2021
  7. May 24, 2021
  8. April 26, 2021
  9. March 22, 2021
  10. February 22, 2021
  11. January 25, 2021
  12. December 16, 2020
  13. November 18, 2020
  14. October 14, 2020
  15. September 16, 2020
  16. August 18, 2020
  17. July 21, 2020
  18. June 23, 2020
  19. May 26, 2020
  20. April 28, 2020
  21. April 2, 2020
  22. March 10, 2020
  23. February 20, 2020
  24. December 3, 2019
  25. November 12, 2019
  26. October 29, 2019
  27. October 1, 2019
  28. August 20, 2019
  29. July 14, 2019