Bodner, K., C.R Firkowski, J.R. Bennett, C. Brookson, M. Dietze, S. Green, J. Hughes, J. Kerr, M. Kunegel-Lion, S.J. Leroux, E. McIntire, P.K. Molnár, C. Simpkins, E. Tekwa, A. Watts, M-J. Fortin (2021) Bridging the Divide between Ecological Forecasts and Environmental Decision Making. Ecosphere 12 (12): e03869. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3869.
The Canadian Chapter hosted a week-long short course July 24-28, 2023 in Toronto, Canada titled “FORECASTING FOR DECISION-MAKING: AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL & ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE”
See the full description of the course here.
The main purpose of this course was to build skills for producing more reliable and decision-relevant forecasts. Specific course topics covered included Bayesian model-fitting, forecasting with static vs. dynamic models, increasing model reproducibility, propagating uncertainties, incorporating decision-making priorities into forecasts, engaging with a lens of data sovereignty, and increasing effective communication. Participants also worked in teams to generate forecasting models for one of three case studies: infectious disease control, fisheries management, and water quality monitoring.
In the spirit of having the course be as open as possible, the course materials are available including lectures, exercises, and forecast modelling materials for three case studies: Infectious Disease Control, Fisheries Management, Water Quality Monitoring. The playlist of the lectures is available on the EFI YouTube channel here and the exercises and case study materials are on GitHub here.
Participating organizations and institutions: This course has been developed by the Canadian Chapter of the Ecological Forecasting Initiative in partnership with the Canadian Network for Modelling Infectious Diseases, the Mathematics for Public Health at the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences, the Ecological Forecasting Initiative in the United States, and Apex Resource Management Solutions.