July 31, 2025

EFI is excited to connect with individuals in the broader community at ESA in Baltimore this year!

Below are details about the EFI Social, workshops, sessions organized by EFI, and other forecasting presentations and presentations by the EFI community. If you are presenting a poster or talk at ESA that you don’t see on the list, reach out so we can get it added to this list!

We will continue to make updates to this page prior to ESA.  All times listed below are in US Eastern Time.

EFI Social. Tuesday, Aug 12, 7:00-9:00pm

Connect and network with others in the EFI community over food at Tulsi’s Sobo Kitchen & Bar, just a short 15-minute walk from the Convention Center.

EFI Badges

We will have EFI badges that can be attached to the ESA name tags available for individuals who are part of the Ecological Forecasting Initiative community. Find Mike Dietze throughout the week or at the EFI Social on Tuesday to get a badge and look for others with the green badge!

EFI Organized Oral Session – Ecological Forecasting for Research and Decision Making
Thursday, August 14 at 8am-9:30am; Location Hilton Key 6

• James Holmquist (Smithsonian Environmental Research Center) – How (and why) to make probabilistic forecasts of coastal wetland ecosystem response to elevated sea-level rise
• Eric Ward (University of Maryland/NASA GSFC) – Operational seasonal forecasting of the terrestrial carbon cycle
• Jonathan Borelli (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) – Using lake hydrodynamics to forecast impending algal blooms
• Megan Donahue (University of Hawaii at Manoa) – Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts for evaluating coral disease risk
• Yiluan Song (University of Michigan) – Experimental warming informs forecasts of forest tree phenology under climate change.

EFI Contributed Oral Session – Back and Forecasting in Ecology 
Thursday, Aug 14 at 1:30-3:00pm; Location BCC340

• Cayelan Carey (Virginia Tech) – High-frequency monitoring data reveal substantial variability in the intrinsic predictability of freshwater ecosystems
• Amy Patterson (University of Wyoming) – Approaches for handling missing data in ecological time series: a comparison of methods
• Natalia Quinteros Casaverde (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center) – Spectroscopic reconstruction of fresh-leaf moisture content in dried leaves
• Quinn Thomas (Virginia Tech) – Lessons learned from five years of the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge

Other Forecasting Presentations & Presentations by the EFI Community

If you are presenting an ecological forecasting-related talk or poster that you don’t see on the list, email EFI so we can get it added!

Presentations that are not about forecasting specifically, but are by EFI community members, are denoted with an *

Monday

• 1:45 -2:00 pm, Charlotte Malmborg (Boston University), BCC 338 – Forecasting recovery after insect defoliation: predicting forest recovery rates and disturbance outcomes
• 2:30-2:45 pm, Andrew Villeneuve (University of New Hampshire), BCC 349 – Walking the thermal landscape: Time-explicit thermal tolerance models improve our understanding of Marine Heatwaves’ biological effects

Tuesday

• 10:45-11:00 am, Pamela Rueda-Cediel (University of Kentucky), BCC 322 – Assessing the Performance of Past Predictions in Ecology: Comparing Population Viability Analysis (PVA) Forecasts Over the Last 40 years to Current Trends

Wednesday

• 10:00-10:15 am, Mike Dietze (Boston University), BCC 344 – THE PEcAn+SIPNET Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Reanalysis of North America: Development and Initial Validation
• 10:00-10:15 am, Diego Ellis Soto (University of California, Berkeley), BCC 340 – Global, near real-time ecological forecasting of mortality events through participatory science
• 11:00-11:15 am, Charles Yackulic (Southwest Biological Science Center), Hilton Key 6 – Forecasting invasion dynamics and developing causal knowledge to inform reservoir operations and water storage policy
• 4:45-5:00 pm, David Vasseur (Yale University), BCC 343 – Using thermal performance curves and population dynamic models to forecast extinction risk

Thursday

• *8:00 – 9:30 am, Abigail Lewis (Smithsonian Environmental Research Center), Hilton Holiday 3 – Leveraging marsh restoration for empowering climate change communication in northeastern National Parks. Abby is presenting in the Science Research and Engagement in Public Lands from Local to Global session
• 2:15 -2:30 pm, Jason McLachlan (University of Notre Dame), BCC 337 – Collaborative production of ecological forecasting curricula and mentorship that respect traditional knowledge
• 4:00 – 4:15 pm, Kathryn Hoffman (Virginia Tech), BCC 337 – Water quality forecast visualization co-design: A case study from Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire, USA

Thursday Poster Presentations; 5:00-6:30 pm, ESA Exhibit Hall

• Diego Centeno-Alvarado (Federal University of Pernambuco) – Forecasting climate change impacts on pollination services of key crops in northeastern Brazil through integrated ecological modeling
• *Rania Adouim (student working with Abigail Lewis), – Ten years of plant surveys reveal interactive effects of climate change and biological invasion on community composition in a coastal marsh

Workshops

Building Data Science Skills in the Classroom Using Ecological Forecasting; Tuesday, August 12, 8-9:30am; Location Hilton Holiday 3

Data science skills, such as wrangling, graphing, analyzing, and visualizing large datasets, are increasingly required for careers both within and beyond ecology. Within ecology, data science tools and approaches are evolving rapidly with the development of high-frequency sensor networks and other “big data” technologies, application of machine learning methods, and emergence of highly quantitative sub-disciplines such as ecological forecasting. As a result, ecologists must continually learn (and teach!) new data science skills throughout their careers, necessitating development of strong quantitative literacy and reasoning skills in ecology students. In this workshop, participants will explore an open-source, modular curriculum that aims to reduce the barrier to entry to data science and modeling skills – such as generating an ecological forecast or training a machine learning model – for both ecology students and instructors. The Macrosystems EDDIE program includes 1-3 hour learning modules that introduce skills such as formatting, visualizing, and interpreting high-frequency data; building ecological models; quantifying model uncertainty; and generating ecological forecasts for both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. We will work through module materials together and discuss pathways for integrating new data science, modeling, and forecasting approaches into both our teaching and research.

An Introduction to the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge: A Hands-On Example Using Ground Beetle Abundance and Richness; Tuesday, August 12, 11:45 AM – 1:15 PM EDT; Location Hilton Holiday 1

The Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network (EFI-RCN) has created a forecasting challenge (https://ecoforecast.org/efi-rcn-forecast-challenges/) for participants to forecast five different themes (aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, tick populations, phenology, and beetle communities) of publicly available data published by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, https://data.neonscience.org). The overall objectives of the challenge are to develop a community of practice for ecological forecasting, develop standards, build tools and cyberinfrastructure to facilitate forecasting, and create a platform for visualizing and evaluating forecast performance. These resources are openly available to anyone who is interested in learning about, creating, and/or using ecological forecasts. In this workshop we provide an overview of the theme focusing on forecasting ground beetle abundance and richness across NEON terrestrial sites. The workshop will include code-along instructions to help participants create and submit a relatively simple forecast to the EFI RCN NEON forecasting challenge platform, and how to interpret metrics of forecast skill. Our goal is to provide a foundation that participants can build upon to create more sophisticated predictions about ecological communities, and use the EFI RCN resources in future forecasting applications.

Date: July 25, 2023

EFI is excited about the opportunity to connect with the broader ecological forecasting community through a number of events at ESA in Long Beach, California this year! Below are details about the EFI Social, a workshop about the NEON Forecasting Challenge, multiple sessions organized by EFI and others about forecasting EFI-organized and other forecasting, and a Career Central panel. If you are presenting an ecological forecasting-related talk or poster that you don’t see on the list, reach out so we can get it added to this list!

We will again have EFI badges to add to your name tags!
We will continue to make updates to this page prior to ESA. All times listed below are in US Pacific Time.

EFI Badges

We will have EFI badges that can be attached to the ESA name tags available for individuals who are part of the Ecological Forecasting Initiative community. Find Mike Dietze throughout the week or at the EFI Social on Wednesday to get a badge and look for others with the green badge!

Schedule Summary

Schedule Details

EFI Social
Wednesday, August 7 at 6:30-8:30 PM

Connect and network with others in the EFI community over food, including vegan and vegetarian options at The Auld Dubliner. The Auld Dubliner is just 400 feet from the Convention Center.

Workshop:  An Introduction to the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge: A Hands-On Example Using Ground Beetle Abundance and Richness
Thursday, August 8 at 11:45 AM – 1:15 PM; Location: 104B

This workshop will provide an overview of the EFI RCN NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge theme forecasting ground beetle abundance and richness across NEON terrestrial sites. The workshop will include code-along instructions to help participants create and submit a simple forecast to the Forecasting Challenge platform as well as interpret metrics of forecast skill. Participants will gain a foundation that can be built upon to create more sophisticated predictions about ecological communities and use the EFI RCN resources in future forecasting applications.

EFI Organized Oral Session: Ecological Forecasting for Research and Decision Making
Tuesday. August 6 at 8-9:30 AM; Location 104C

• Shuqi Lin (Environment and Climate Change Canada) – An operational forecast system based on process-based and machine learning models to enable predictive simulation of algal bloom in a well-monitored m
• Elliott Hazen (NOAA) – Dynamic ocean ecosystems necessitate dynamic management: ecological nowcasts and seasonal to annual forecasts for improving our response to unexpected
• Millie Chapman (NCEAS) – Forecasting species distributions for strategic conservation decisions: Why the social and political dimensions of underlying biodiversity data matter
• Istem Fer (Finnish Meteorological Institute) – A retrospective analysis of seasonal agricultural forecasts to improve carbon sequestration and decision support at Field Observatory Network (FiON) sites
• Kayode Oshinubi (Northern Arizona University) – Accounting for spatial variation in climatic factors predicts spatial variations in mosquito abundance in the desert southwest
• Gemma Carroll (Environmental Defense Fund) – Projecting climate change impacts on a tropical reef fishery to strengthen coastal community resilience

Contributed Oral Session: Back and Forecasting in Ecology
Tuesday, August 6 at 10:00-11:30 AM; Location: 102C

• Eric Sokol (NEON) – Forecasting ground beetle abundances across the National Ecological Observatory Network
• Michael Dietze (Boston University) – Multisensor data assimilation to support terrestrial carbon cycle Monitoring, Reporting, Verification, and Forecasting
• Paul Selmants (U.S. Geological Survey) – Initial conditions have a lasting impact on model estimates of forest ecosystem carbon dynamics
• Daniel Katz (Cornell University) – Pollen release models for public health applications: Comparing Juniperus ashei phenology with airborne pollen
• Marcus Lapeyrolerie (University of California, Berkeley) – A Comparison of Neural Network Models for Limnological Time Series Forecasting
• John Zobitz (Augsburg University) – Operationalizing a soil carbon flux forecast across the continental United States

Organized Oral Session: What is Model Complexity? Defining Complexity Across Systems in Ecology
Tuesday, August 6 at 10:00-11:30 AM; Location: 101A

This session, organized by Charlotte Malmborg (Boston University) and R. Alex Thompson (Washington State University), has been in the works since ESA 2023 with conversations about the then-blog post, now-published paper about model complexity (https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2202). There will be an audience discussion following the panelists and it would be great to have fellow forecasters join that discussion.

• Cara Gallagher (University of Potsdam) – From physiology to populations: Modelling the consequences of disturbance on marine mammals
• Kelly Heilman (Oak Ridge Associated Universities/USDA Forest Service) – Incorporating ecological complexity in growth and mortality models through hierarchical data fusion of tree ring and forest inventory data
• Kai Zhu (University of Michigan) – Be intentional with model complexity using hierarchical models
• Drew Peltier (Northern Arizona University) – Still recovering or just remembering? Differentiating autocorrelation, memory, and legacies in dryland forest of the Western US
• Alan Hastings (University of California, Davis) – What do complex dynamics approaches tell us about ecology?
• Charlotte Malmborg (Boston University) – Where, When, and How Bugs Eat Trees: Confronting Complexity in the Pest Outbreak Process

Organized Oral Session: Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity Through the Lens of Climate-Explicit Demographic Modeling
Thursday, August 8 at 8:00-9:30 AM; Location: 104A

• Edgar González (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México) – Effect of climate change on the population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution
• Bilgecan Sen (Stony Brook University) – Environmental space-time equivalence of the breeding ecology of emperor penguins
• Jacob Moutouama (Rice University) – Forecasting range shifts of a dioecious plant species under climate change
• John Jackson (Estación Biológica de Doñana) – Life-history traits as a predictive tool for climate change vulnerability in terrestrial vertebrates
• Margaret Evans (University of Arizona) – Spatial networks of tree-ring time series reveal the limits of space-for-time substitution: implications for ecological forecasting
• Jeniffer Williams (University of British Columbia) – Linking climate to demography to predict future climate change impacts on population dynamics and persistence

Special Session: Toward Understanding and Anticipating Extreme Weather Effects on Biodiversity, Phenology, and Ecosystems
Monday, August 5 at 10:30-11:30 AM; Location: 104C

Extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, flooding, and unusual cold periods, are a major component of global climate change. Despite increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, direct and indirect effects on biodiversity, phenology, and ecosystem services remain poorly understood. Assessing and anticipating impacts of extreme weather presents unique obstacles across systems, geographies, and scales. Key challenges include availability of and accessibility to relevant data resources, development of methods and approaches to characterize extreme weather events, and obstacles to predicting and forecasting. Solutions require multidisciplinary collaborations across the ecological community to develop effective tools and resources to address these challenges. We propose a session to convene a panel of experts spanning multiple career stages in the fields of biodiversity informatics, plant and insect phenology, and vector borne disease systems to discuss key challenges to understanding and anticipating extreme weather effects across organisms, phenology, and ecosystems. Session hosts will provide a talk outlining work within their field of expertise, followed by an interactive panel and audience discussion. The session will culminate in a dedicated 10-minute discussion, facilitated by the organizer, focusing on facilitating cross-disciplinary collaborations to leverage knowledge and approaches applicable to addressing challenges across domains.  

Speakers: Robert Guralnick (University of Florida), Michael Belitz (Michigan State University), Daijiang Li (Louisiana State University), Assaf Anyamba (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

Organized Oral Session: Collaborative Conservation in the Face of Changing Climate
Thursday, August 8 at 8:00-9:30 AM; Location: 104B

• Todd Schenk (Virginia Tech) – Brokering knowledge: Enhancing the saliency, credibility and legitimacy of data on species migration
• Paul Armsworth (University of Tennessee) – Reconciling spatial biodiversity optimization and institutional dynamics to increase the impact of land protection
• Matthew Williamson (Boise State University) – Jurisdictional fragmentation, implementation resistance, and connectivity conservation for icon American wildlife
• Narayani Barve (University of Tennessee, Knoxville) – Predicting places and species where transboundary collaboration is needed under climate change
• Hailey Shanovich (USFS) – Supporting integration of climate change into State Wildlife Action Plans – being a knowledge broker
• Kailin Kroetz (Arizona State University) – Sustainability implications of land protection by diverse actors

Career Central – The Ecology Entrepreneur: Insights from Industry Leaders
Monday, Aug 5 at noon-1pm, Location: Exhibit Hall Career Central Room 1

Join this insightful session with founders of ecological organizations, consulting services, and innovative initiatives. Panelists are entrepreneurs who have demonstrated initiative, leadership, and innovation in creating and leading their communities of practice. If you identify with these qualities, you too can become an entrepreneur.

Panelists: Tim Nuttle (Oikos Ecology), Michael Dietze (Ecological Forecasting initiative), Shah Selbe (Conservify and FieldKit)