August 27, 2026
This third installment of the ongoing “Early Career Forecaster Spotlight” series spotlights Ogonna Eli at Northern Arizona University.
The Early Career Forecaster Spotlight series is run by EFI’s Student and Early Career Association (EFISECA) and highlights early career forecasters to learn about their journey and work within ecological forecasting and to share knowledge and tips for those interested or currently working in the ecological forecasting field. If you would like to nominate an early career forecaster to be interviewed, please do so using this form.
Here is the link to all the posts in the “Early Career Forecaster Spotlight” series.
- How did you get introduced to ecological forecasting?
Through my research. In my dissertation, I explore the spatial dynamics of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks and how drought and other environmental conditions impact forest mortality from MPB. In 2025, I attended a workshop hosted by the VectorByte team on vector abundance and time-dependent data analysis at the University of Notre Dame, where I was introduced to EFI.
- What are your current research or academic interests and how do they relate to ecological forecasting?
My current research sits at the intersection of environmental data science, remote sensing, and management decision-making. I focus on identifying environmental conditions, such as drought, for example, that make MPB outbreaks likely, and on determining the spatial extent an outbreak reaches once those conditions are present. In short, I develop spatiotemporal ecological forecasting models that identify conditions conducive to MPB outbreaks and forecast the resulting progression of forest mortality.
- What motivates you in ecological forecasting? If applicable, are there any stakeholders or end-users you work with?
My research is central to my profession and to the scientific career I am building. I am passionate about my research – every aspect of it: from the fieldwork and lab work to the computational side as well. I value continuous learning, so I value the opportunity to regularly attend talks and workshops related to my research. Above all, I am motivated by translating scientific research into practical solutions that can help to understand environmental challenges and contribute to management decisions, particularly in forestry: how we protect forests from drought and MPB, and how we expect forests to behave under a given set of conditions.
- What are the key lessons you have learned in your ecological forecasting work?
In my work, I have encountered errors that could have been caught during the data exploration stage but were missed. So the key lesson I carry with me is to be careful during the data exploration stage and not to confuse it with hypothesis generation. Careful data exploration saves me a ton of errors later in the process.
- What is the biggest challenge you have faced in ecological forecasting and how did you overcome it?
The biggest challenge I had when I started working with ecological data was with data exploration. I overcame that by being intentional with addressing the challenge. I took related coursework and relied on the guidance published in: Alain F. Zuur, Elena N. Ieno, and Chris S. Elphick, “A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems” (https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2009.00001.x). The paper includes a protocol for data exploration in R, and now each time I start a new analysis, I first go through the steps. The paper also included guidelines on addressing problems encountered during the data exploration process.
- What do you want to share with folks interested in becoming involved with ecological forecasting (e.g., resources, advice, etc.)?
Graduate-level coursework provided me with a solid background. I also worked with “Data Analysis and Visualisation in R for Ecologists” materials. It is a good resource for getting started with R in general. I also found the book “Practical Time Series Forecasting With R – A Hands-on Guide” by Galit Shmueli and Julia Polak helpful.
- Optional fun question! Do you have a special or favorite place from your research, travels, or education?
Definitely the Arizona Sky Islands! They are truly remarkable ecological laboratories, where extraordinary mosaics of ecosystems and biodiversity are shaped by steep gradients in elevation and microclimate across isolated mountain peaks rising from the Arizona desert. When I went to the Sky Island mountains in the summer of 2025, I started in the desert where the daytime temperature may reach 120° Fahrenheit, and I ended up on a mountaintop where the temperature is perhaps 75° Fahrenheit, and you feel comfortable wearing a jacket. I was amazed by their rich diversity of ecosystems within a 1-hour drive. So it’s home to many diverse and unusual plants.
