May 18, 2026

In this first installment of an ongoing “Early Career Forecaster Spotlight” series, we put the spotlight on Abigail Lewis, who is currently a postdoctoral fellow with the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. This Early Career Forecaster Spotlight series is run by EFI’s Student and Early Career Association (EFISECA) and highlights early career forecasters to learn about their journey and work within ecological forecasting and to share knowledge and tips for those interested or currently working in the ecological forecasting field. If you would like to nominate an early career forecaster to be interviewed, please do so using this form.

Here is the link to the “Early Career Forecaster Spotlight” series, which will be populated with this and future posts.

1. How did you get introduced to ecological forecasting?

I did my Ph.D. with Cayelan Carey at Virginia Tech and was introduced to ecological forecasting through her lab. Cayelan co-taught a graduate seminar on ecological forecasting with Quinn Thomas in the spring of 2020 (what a time) that was a really helpful introduction to the field. 

My first involvement in EFI was during the all-hands meeting in 2020. I remember volunteering to take notes for my breakout group and then immediately regretting it because I didn’t know how to spell the forecasting acronyms and jargon people were throwing around. But after that meeting I kept looking around and wondering what would be needed to forecast the things around me. Could I predict where an ant would move next? Could I predict what birds I would hear on my walk? Are some things inherently unpredictable? Eventually, I decided I needed help answering these questions, so I joined the EFI Theory Working Group, and I have been closely involved with that group ever since.

2. What are your current research or academic interests and how do they relate to ecological forecasting?

My research is at the intersection of aquatic science and ecological forecasting. Currently, I am a postdoctoral Climate Change Fellow at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC), where I am working to develop forecasts of methane emission from coastal wetlands. 

One question that has been especially interesting to me recently is whether global change may alter the predictability of ecological dynamics. Researchers at SERC have been running two intensive whole-ecosystem experiments in the marsh, where they experimentally raise temperatures up to 6 ºC above ambient. Using data from these experiments, we are seeing that methane emissions are not only higher but also more variable and less predictable under warmer conditions. 

Next up, I will be starting a faculty position in the Odum School of Ecology at the University of Georgia in August 2027. In that position, I plan to continue building a research program focused on understanding and forecasting the effects of global change on aquatic ecosystem function.

 

3. What motivates you in ecological forecasting? If applicable, are there any stakeholders or end-users you work with?

One of the main end users I am currently working with is the California Air Resources Board (CARB). CARB is building a comprehensive greenhouse gas budget across the state, and I am helping to set up the capacity for process-based forecasts of methane emission from coastal wetlands as part of that effort. This project involves collaboration with several other EFI members, including the pecan team and Jim Holmquist, one of my supervisors at SERC. 

4. What are the key lessons you have learned in your ecological forecasting work?

One key lesson has been that ecological forecasting shifts the research process in subtle ways that are beneficial even outside of a forecasting context. To be able to generate near-term forecasts at SERC, I needed to set up workflows for real-time data processing. Now, using those workflows, we are able to visualize the data coming in every day and immediately assess if there are any maintenance needs or if something surprising is happening that we might want to monitor with additional sampling. By looking at the data and seeing when forecasts are more or less accurate, we have started to find new and interesting patterns that help us better understand the fundamental ecosystem ecology happening out in the marsh. 

5. What is the biggest challenge you have faced in ecological forecasting and how did you overcome it?

There are lots of incremental challenges in ecological forecasting. Developing real-time workflows for driver and observation data can be difficult, and keeping those data pipelines working requires attention. I have found that I need to budget a little bit of time every day to monitor and maintain data pipelines and visualizations, especially as these workflows are getting used by a growing community of researchers across SERC. Throughout all of this, I have been fortunate to work on top of lots of pre-existing cyberinfrastructure from the EFI-NEON forecasting challenge, Virginia Reservoirs LTREB, and the Technology in Ecology lab at SERC. 

Another challenge is the learning curve of vocabulary and methods in ecological forecasting. Both EFISECA and the EFI Education working group have been helpful for me—these groups do a lot of work to help compile resources and provide support for new forecasters. 

6.  What do you want to share with folks interested in becoming involved with ecological forecasting (e.g., resources, advice, etc.)?

Do it! 

I have really enjoyed being involved with EFI working groups. They are always open to new members—all you need to do is hop on the monthly zoom call for whatever group interests you. EFISECA is an especially great home for early career forecasters, and early career forecasters are also encouraged to join the other thematic working groups. 

EFI members have created and compiled many resources for getting started with forecasting, and any summary I try to do here would be woefully incomplete. The EFI website is a great place to start exploring those resources.

When all else fails, the best advice is usually to reach out to Jody Peters 🙂 Jody is unbelievably great about connecting folks with resources, researchers, working groups, etc. related to ecological forecasting. 

7. Optional fun question! Do you have a special or favorite place from your research, travels, or education? 

Most recently, I just got back from a short backpacking trip on Assateague Island National Seashore. It was beautiful! Lots of cool birds; I woke up to ~20 egrets, a family of green-winged teal, and a greater yellowlegs hanging out in the wetland by our campsite (see photo).